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D. La Serena vs A. Italiano — Primera División 2018

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
A. Italiano
A. Italiano
J. Vargas 55' (pen), 45' (pen)
F. Troyansky 64' (pen)
10/25/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio La Portada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

D. La Serena38%
×Draw26%
A. Italiano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.33
A. Italiano
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 127 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.20
A. Italiano
1.17

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.35
A. Italiano
1.47

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
A. Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

A. Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
65%
D. La Serena or A. Italiano
74%
Draw or A. Italiano
62%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
17%
A. Italiano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
74%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
38%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
15%
A. Italiano 1+ goals
72%
A. Italiano 2+ goals
36%
A. Italiano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
52%
A. Italiano (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 71 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.20 + A. Italiano defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

A. Italiano attack 1.17 + D. La Serena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

D. La Serena scores more
38%
level
26%
A. Italiano scores more
35%

D. La Serena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. VargasD. La SerenaD. La Serena · F
8.6

Match Events

20'
Luis RiverosPenalty confirmed
24'
Oliver Rojas
45+1'
Jeisson VargasPenalty confirmed
45'
J. VargasPenalty
46'
S. Diaz← J. Fuentes
46'
N. Aedo← N. Orellana
46'
F. Troyansky← L. Palacios
52'
Jeisson VargasPenalty confirmed
55'
J. VargasPenalty
60'
Jhonatan Kauan← E. Moreira
62'
Sebastián Díaz
62'
Luis RiverosPenalty confirmed
64'
F. TroyanskyPenalty
70'
P. Guajardo← M. Collao
79'
M. Sandoval← Eduardo Vargas
80'
A. Zanini← M. Pinto
90+4'
J. Rojas← M. Rivera
90+4'
G. A. Jara Gonzalez← J. Vargas

Possession

43%D.

Shots

13D.

Pass accuracy

49%D.

Statistics

D.A.
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots9
1.91Expected Goals (xG)1.72
2Corners7
11Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots9
4On Target2
5Off Target4
4Blocked3
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
272Total Passes348
207Accurate Passes274
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs A. Italiano

D. La Serena beat A. Italiano 2-1 in Primera División on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Vargas (45' pen, 55' pen), F. Troyansky (64' pen).

A. Italiano controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada in La Serena.