A. Italiano vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 70+ matches
A. Italiano49%
D. La Serena26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
A. Italiano creates 47% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 70 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
A. Italiano ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
A. Italiano at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches
D. La Serena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
A. Italiano attack 1.54 + D. La Serena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63
D. La Serena attack 1.00 + A. Italiano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
A. Italiano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
Huachipato
Union Espanola
San Luis
Antofagasta
O'Higgins
Deportes Iquique
Everton de Vina
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
Palestino
Deportes Temuco
Universidad de ConcepcionA. Italiano
Curico UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
A. Italiano host D. La Serena on Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 21:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: A. Italiano vs D. La Serena
A. Italiano beat D. La Serena 2-1 in Primera División on May 4, 2025.
Goals: J. Vargas (7'), L. Valencia Rossel (21' pen), G. Guiffrey (90').
D. La Serena controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 18.
The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.