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Czarni Połaniec vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
CANC
13:00
Łagów
Łagów
3/25/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Czarni Połaniec37%
×Draw26%
Łagów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Łagów
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 45 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
63%
Czarni Połaniec or Łagów
74%
Draw or Łagów
63%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
17%
Łagów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
75%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
40%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
16%
Łagów 1+ goals
75%
Łagów 2+ goals
40%
Łagów 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
50%
Łagów (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.38

Łagów attack 1.36 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
37%
level
26%
Łagów scores more
37%

Czarni Połaniec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Czarni Połaniec host Łagów

March 25, 2023: Czarni Połaniec take on Łagów in III Liga - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Czarni Połaniec host Łagów at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.