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Łagów vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
3 – 0
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
11/20/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów51%
×Draw22%
Czarni Połaniec26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.90
Czarni Połaniec
1.31

Łagów creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 85 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
74%
Łagów or Czarni Połaniec
78%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
49%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
29%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
85%
Łagów 2+ goals
56%
Łagów 3+ goals
29%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
73%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
38%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
66%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.90

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Łagów scores more
51%
level
22%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
26%

Łagów at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łagów vs Czarni Połaniec

Łagów beat Czarni Połaniec 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.