Cyprus 0–1 Azerbaijan: Result & Stats

Cyprus

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Azerbaijan

Maksim Medvedev 29'

9/8/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 2GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cyprus45%

×Draw28%

Azerbaijan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CyprusExpected goals in this matchAzerbaijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Cyprus

1.33

Azerbaijan

0.97

Cyprus creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

0.91

creates per match

0.67

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cyprus

0.91

Azerbaijan

0.67

allows per match

Cyprus

1.27

Azerbaijan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Azerbaijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw

73%

Cyprus or Azerbaijan

72%

Draw or Azerbaijan

55%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+

21%

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals

74%

Cyprus 2+ goals

38%

Cyprus 3+ goals

15%

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

62%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

25%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)

62%

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 0.91 + Azerbaijan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Azerbaijan attack 0.67 + Cyprus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cyprus scores more

45%

level

28%

Azerbaijan scores more

27%

Cyprus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Maksim Medvedev

Azerbaijan · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

Abbas Hüseynov

29'

Maksim Medvedev

57'

Valentinos Sielis

57'

Chambos Kyriakou← Ioannis Kousoulos

57'

Loizos Loizou← Dimitris Christofi

60'

Joshgun Diniyev← Elvin Jamalov

64'

Araz Abdullayev← Tamkin Khalilzadeh

76'

Anton Krivotsyuk

76'

Matija Špoljarić← Grigoris Kastanos

76'

Namiq Alasgarov← Rahim Sadikhov

82'

Badavi Guseynov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CyprusAzerbaijan

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots13

2Corners3

12Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots13

1On Target4

6Off Target6

3Blocked3

5Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

473Total Passes439

385Accurate Passes354

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1