Azerbaijan 0–0 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Azerbaijan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cyprus

10/13/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Azerbaijan57%

×Draw25%

Cyprus17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzerbaijanExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.73

Azerbaijan

1.57

Cyprus

0.73

Azerbaijan creates 115% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

0.54

0.91

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Azerbaijan

1.00

Cyprus

0.54

allows per match

Azerbaijan

0.91

Cyprus

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Azerbaijan or draw

83%

Azerbaijan or Cyprus

75%

Draw or Cyprus

43%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

31%

Cyprus wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

79%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

46%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

21%

Cyprus 1+ goals

52%

Cyprus 2+ goals

17%

Cyprus 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

77%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Cyprus away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan attack 1.00 + Cyprus defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cyprus attack 0.54 + Azerbaijan defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Azerbaijan scores more

57%

level

25%

Cyprus scores more

17%

Azerbaijan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Azerbaijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Dimitris Dimitriou

Cyprus · G

8.6

Match Events

5'

Anton Krivotsyuk

18'

Ioannis Pittas← Pieros Sotiriou

26'

Andreas Karo

27'

Qara QarayevMissed penalty

37'

Chambos Kyriakou

46'

Panagiotis Zachariou← Chambos Kyriakou

57'

Namiq Alasgarov← Azer Salahli

57'

Joshgun Diniyev← Ismayil Ibrahimli

69'

Loizos Loizou← Dimitris Christofi

71'

Amin Seydiyev← Bahlul Mustafazada

71'

Rahman Hacıyev← Rahim Sadikhov

81'

Loizos Loizou

81'

Ali Ghorbani← Ramil Sheydaev

81'

Ioannis Kousoulos← Marinos Tzionis

90+4'

Kostakis Artymatas

90+4'

Konstantinos Laifis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AzerbaijanCyprus

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots12

1Corners1

18Fouls23

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target0

5Off Target8

0Blocked4

10Inside Box3

1Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

498Total Passes369

367Accurate Passes257

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls23

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3