Cusco 2–1 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cesar Vallejo

8/11/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cusco50%

×Draw26%

Cesar Vallejo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.01

Cusco

1.54

Cesar Vallejo

1.01

Cusco creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 99 away

1.72

creates per match

1.00

1.02

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Cusco

1.72

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

Cusco

1.02

Cesar Vallejo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

75%

Cusco or Cesar Vallejo

74%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

50%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

25%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

79%

Cusco 2+ goals

45%

Cusco 3+ goals

20%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

64%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

27%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

67%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cusco scores more

50%

level

26%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

25%

Cusco at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff