Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cesar Vallejo vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cusco
Cusco
10/28/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Cesar Vallejo50%
×Draw25%
Cusco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.59
Cusco
1.03

Cesar Vallejo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 89 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.54
Cusco
1.19

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.88
Cusco
1.65

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Cusco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
75%
Cesar Vallejo or Cusco
75%
Draw or Cusco
50%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
26%
Cusco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
80%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
47%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
21%
Cusco 1+ goals
64%
Cusco 2+ goals
28%
Cusco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
67%
Cusco (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Cusco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cusco attack 1.19 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
50%
level
25%
Cusco scores more
25%

Cesar Vallejo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs Cusco

Cesar Vallejo beat Cusco 3-1 in Primera División on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.