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Cusco vs Ayacucho FC — Primera División 2026

Cusco
Cusco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
F. Callejo 66'
N. Silva 53'
L. Colitto 4'
4/20/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Cusco53%
×Draw24%
Ayacucho FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.75
Ayacucho FC
1.06

Cusco creates 65% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 95 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.75
Ayacucho FC
1.09

allows per match

Cusco
1.02
Ayacucho FC
1.75

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
77%
Cusco or Ayacucho FC
76%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
47%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
30%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
83%
Cusco 2+ goals
52%
Cusco 3+ goals
25%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
65%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
29%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
70%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.02 · 91 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.75 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.75 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ayacucho FC attack 1.09 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cusco scores more
53%
level
24%
Ayacucho FC scores more
23%

Cusco at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
N. SilvaCuscoCusco · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
L. Colitto↳ N. Silva
29'
A. Tamariz
46'
J. Villamarin← D. Ramirez
53'
N. Silva↳ C. Diez
60'
P. Ratto← A. Yovera
60'
M. Ferreira← J. Lucumi
66'
F. Callejo↳ I. Colman
71'
P. Da Silva← N. Silva
71'
J. Tevez← F. Callejo
80'
D. Caro← A. Tamariz
85'
J. TevezGoal Disallowed - offside
86'
P. Cardenas← C. Diez
86'
J. Aquino← I. Colman
90+2'
A. Custodio← A. Ampuero

Possession

56%Cusco

Shots

10Cusco

Pass accuracy

50%Cusco

Statistics

CuscoAyacucho
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots9
3Corners0
6Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target4
5Off Target3
1Blocked2
8Inside Box2
2Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
518Total Passes404
457Accurate Passes357
88%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Cusco vs Ayacucho FC

Cusco beat Ayacucho FC 3-0 in Primera División on April 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Colitto (4'), N. Silva (53'), F. Callejo (66').

Cusco controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.