Ayacucho FC 1–3 Cusco: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cusco

J. Pósito 90+1'

M. Montes 76'

S. Rengifo 60'

J. Velásquez 15'

9/11/2021

Primera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ayacucho FC45%

×Draw25%

Cusco30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.23

Ayacucho FC

1.57

Cusco

1.23

Ayacucho FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 89 away

1.50

creates per match

1.19

1.28

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.50

Cusco

1.19

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.28

Cusco

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Cusco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

70%

Ayacucho FC or Cusco

75%

Draw or Cusco

55%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

23%

Cusco wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

79%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

46%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

21%

Cusco 1+ goals

71%

Cusco 2+ goals

35%

Cusco 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

60%

Cusco (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 92 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.50 + Cusco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cusco attack 1.19 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

45%

level

25%

Cusco scores more

30%

Ayacucho FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

E. Aubert

Cusco · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

15'

25'

30'

34'

34'

45+1'

46'

E. Páucar← J. Aguirre

46'

M. Carranza← A. Carrillo

56'

Víctor Cedrón

60'

S. Rengifo↳ E. Aubert

65'

Emmanuel Páucar

65'

Y. Tello← V. Cedrón

69'

C. Olascuaga← P. Casique

69'

L. Carranza← O. Arce

73'

Aldair Salazar

76'

M. Montes↳ M. Carranza

77'

D. Espinoza← S. Rengifo

81'

J. Pósito← L. Sosa

82'

N. Royón← M. Montes

90+1'

J. Pósito↳ P. Lavandeira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AyacuchoCusco

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots11

8Corners7

21Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots11

3On Target6

14Off Target3

3Blocked2

7Inside Box10

13Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

328Total Passes324

230Accurate Passes216

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Ayacucho FC vs Cusco

Cusco beat Ayacucho FC 3-1 in Primera División on September 11, 2021.

Goals: J. Velásquez (15'), S. Rengifo (60'), M. Montes (76'), J. Pósito (90+1').

Ayacucho FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.

Ayacucho FC vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ayacucho FC vs Cusco