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Cusco vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2026

Cusco
Cusco
Preview
23:30
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
7/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Big match
55%
Cusco
model favours
55%26%19%

Alianza Atletico have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cusco55%
×Draw26%
Alianza Atletico19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.52
Alianza Atletico
0.79

Cusco creates 92% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.78
Alianza Atletico
0.86

allows per match

Cusco
0.72
Alianza Atletico
1.26

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
81%
Cusco or Alianza Atletico
74%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
45%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
28%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
78%
Cusco 2+ goals
45%
Cusco 3+ goals
20%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
55%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
19%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
74%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.78 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Alianza Atletico attack 0.86 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cusco scores more
55%
level
26%
Alianza Atletico scores more
19%

Cusco at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 77% of Alianza Atletico’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 27% of Cusco’s matches
  • 39% of Cusco’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 22% of Cusco’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cusco
Balanced
Alianza Atletico
Direct / counter-attacking
56%Possession44%
84%Pass accuracy74%
13.3Shots13.0
1.62xGBiggest gap1.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CuscoAlianza Atletico

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Cusco
1
Draws
1
Alianza Atletico
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
0–11–04–21–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cusco
LLDWL
Atletico
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cusco vs Alianza Atletico — Match Preview

Cusco face Alianza Atletico on July 18, 2026 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cusco host Alianza Atletico at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.