Alianza Atletico 2–4 Cusco: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Cusco

A. Cossio 45'

J. J. Canela Torres 7'

J. Tevez 90'

I. Colman 34'

F. Callejo 14'

A. Ampuero 5'

3/28/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Alianza Atletico48%

×Draw27%

Cusco25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.96

Alianza Atletico

1.42

Cusco

0.96

Alianza Atletico creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

1.38

creates per match

1.27

0.65

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.38

Cusco

1.27

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.65

Cusco

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Cusco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

75%

Alianza Atletico or Cusco

73%

Draw or Cusco

52%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

23%

Cusco wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

17%

Cusco 1+ goals

62%

Cusco 2+ goals

25%

Cusco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

65%

Cusco (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.38 + Cusco defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cusco attack 1.27 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

48%

level

27%

Cusco scores more

25%

Alianza Atletico at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Cossio

Alianza Atletico · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

A. Ampuero↳ C. Gamarra

7'

J. J. Canela Torres↳ A. Graneros

14'

F. Callejo↳ L. Colitto

22'

José Villegas

34'

I. Colman

45'

A. Cossio↳ J. Perez

46'

E. Perleche← C. Vasquez

56'

Frank Ysique

60'

P. Da Silva← N. Silva

67'

S. Fernandez← J. Perez

71'

M. Aucca← C. Diez

72'

G. A. Larios Saavedra← L. Olmedo

72'

Javier Navea← A. Cossio

80'

Pierre Da Silva

81'

A. Milesi← I. Colman

81'

J. Tevez← F. Callejo

82'

M. Perez← A. Graneros

89'

Pedro Diaz

90+8'

Jeremy Canela

90'

J. Tevez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaCusco

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots16

4Corners7

12Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots16

9On Target7

2Off Target6

5Blocked3

10Inside Box12

6Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

377Total Passes343

317Accurate Passes275

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 2–4 Cusco

Cusco beat Alianza Atletico 4-2 in Primera División on March 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Ampuero (5'), J. J. Canela Torres (7'), F. Callejo (14'), I. Colman (34'), A. Cossio (45'), J. Tevez (90').

Alianza Atletico controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.

Alianza Atletico vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 2–4 Cusco