Cusco 1–0 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Atletico

F. Callejo 25'

8/17/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cusco55%

×Draw26%

Alianza Atletico19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.79

Cusco

1.52

Alianza Atletico

0.79

Cusco creates 92% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

1.78

creates per match

0.86

0.72

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Cusco

1.78

Alianza Atletico

0.86

allows per match

Cusco

0.72

Alianza Atletico

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

81%

Cusco or Alianza Atletico

74%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

45%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

28%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

78%

Cusco 2+ goals

45%

Cusco 3+ goals

20%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

55%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

19%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

74%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.78 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Alianza Atletico attack 0.86 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cusco scores more

55%

level

26%

Alianza Atletico scores more

19%

Cusco at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

P. Diaz

Cusco · G

7.5

Match Events

25'

F. Callejo↳ O. Valenzuela

44'

Frank Ysique

45'

Carlos Gamarra

56'

R. Espinosa← F. Ysique

58'

Erick Perleche

65'

S. Fernandez← L. Olmedo

65'

R. Castro← F. Illanes

77'

J. Zevallos← M. Ruidias

78'

Alvaro Ampuero

78'

Piero Guzman

82'

J. Tevez← N. Silva

82'

R. Diaz← H. Benincasa

82'

J. del Castillo← J. Perez

87'

José Zevallos

89'

A. Milesi← F. Callejo

89'

A. Aoki← P. Da Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoAlianza

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots12

4Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target4

3Off Target5

1Blocked3

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

591Total Passes306

535Accurate Passes252

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1