Cusco 3–2 ADT: Result & Stats | Primera División

Cusco

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

ADT

L. Ramos 90+5'

J. Tévez 39', 3'

J. Rojas 42'

A. Quiñonez 6'

4/15/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cusco56%

×Draw27%

ADT17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.67

Cusco

1.45

ADT

0.67

Cusco creates 116% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.48

creates per match

0.74

0.59

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Cusco

1.48

ADT

0.74

allows per match

Cusco

0.59

ADT

1.42

+0.95scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Cusco+0.95scores more

ADT+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

83%

Cusco or ADT

73%

Draw or ADT

44%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

29%

ADT wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

77%

Cusco 2+ goals

42%

Cusco 3+ goals

18%

ADT 1+ goals

49%

ADT 2+ goals

15%

ADT 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

76%

ADT (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.59 · 7 matches

ADT away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.48 + ADT defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

ADT attack 0.74 + Cusco defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cusco scores more

56%

level

27%

ADT scores more

17%

Cusco at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Rojas

ADT · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Carlos Martin Solis

-5'

Ronald Vega

3'

J. Tévez↳ A. Vásquez

6'

A. Quiñonez↳ J. Rojas

12'

Edson AubertCard upgrade

14'

14'

23'

39'

42'

45+6'

61'

J. Gonzáles← J. Rojas

63'

P. Cárdenas← R. Ramírez

63'

M. Aucca← A. Vásquez

64'

F. Schmidt← J. Zevallos

70'

Oswaldo Valenzuela

71'

L. Ramos← O. Valenzuela

74'

J. Pósito← A. Quiñonez

77'

Miguel Aucca

82'

R. Fernández← N. Silva

89'

Juan TévezGoal cancelled

90+9'

Gu Choi

90+1'

J. Palomino← L. da Silva

90+5'

L. Ramos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoADT

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots8

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.47

3Corners6

17Fouls4

Shots

12Total Shots8

7On Target3

2Off Target1

3Blocked4

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

468Total Passes252

391Accurate Passes177

84%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls4

5Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards3

6Offsides1

Primera División: Cusco 3–2 ADT

Cusco beat ADT 3-2 in Primera División on April 15, 2024.

Goals: J. Tévez (3', 39'), A. Quiñonez (6'), J. Rojas (42'), L. Ramos (90+5').

Cusco controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.

Cusco vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Cusco 3–2 ADT