Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ADT vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cusco
Cusco
L. da Silva 6'
O. Valenzuela 75'
J. Tévez 54'
9/17/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

ADT48%
×Draw23%
Cusco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.76
Cusco
1.33

ADT creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

ADT
1.83
Cusco
1.60

allows per match

ADT
1.06
Cusco
1.69

finishing

ADT+0.03on par
Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ADT or draw
71%
ADT or Cusco
77%
Draw or Cusco
52%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
26%
Cusco wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
83%
ADT 2+ goals
52%
ADT 3+ goals
26%
Cusco 1+ goals
74%
Cusco 2+ goals
38%
Cusco 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
62%
Cusco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.83 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.76

Cusco attack 1.60 + ADT defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ADT scores more
48%
level
23%
Cusco scores more
29%

ADT at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ColmanCuscoCusco · M
8.3

Match Events

6'
L. da Silva↳ C. Inga
20'
John Narváez
46'
J. Tévez← L. Ramos
46'
P. Cárdenas← N. Silva
54'
J. Tévez↳ I. Colman
65'
H. Rengifo← J. Pósito
75'
O. Valenzuela
79'
José Zevallos
81'
J. Domínguez← E. Aubert
85'
Ruben Ramirez
89'
A. Tamariz← J. Zevallos
90+9'
Juan Tévez
90+3'
J. Bilbao← L. Colitto
90+6'
A. Vásquez← I. Colman

Possession

56%ADT

Shots

18ADT

Pass accuracy

50%ADT

Statistics

ADTCusco
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots12
6Corners4
7Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots12
7On Target3
3Off Target7
8Blocked2
7Inside Box7
11Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
434Total Passes341
320Accurate Passes255
74%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3

Primera División: ADT 1–2 Cusco

Cusco beat ADT 2-1 in Primera División on September 17, 2024.

Goals: L. da Silva (6'), J. Tévez (54'), O. Valenzuela (75').

ADT controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.