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Curridabat FC vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
0 – 0
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
8/12/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC42%
×Draw26%
Cariari Pococi32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.45
Cariari Pococi
1.23

Curridabat FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 107 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
68%
Curridabat FC or Cariari Pococi
74%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
58%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
20%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
77%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
42%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
18%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
71%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
35%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
57%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Cariari Pococi scores more
32%

Curridabat FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Curridabat FC 0 – 0 Cariari Pococi

Curridabat FC and Cariari Pococi drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José).