Cariari Pococi 2–2 Curridabat FC: Result & Stats

Cariari Pococi

FT

2 – 2

Curridabat FC

2/3/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 4Polideportivo de Cariarí (Cariari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cariari Pococi47%

×Draw23%

Curridabat FC30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cariari PocociExpected goals in this matchCurridabat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.39

Cariari Pococi

1.81

Curridabat FC

1.39

Cariari Pococi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 32 away

1.68

creates per match

1.38

1.40

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Cariari Pococi

1.68

Curridabat FC

1.38

allows per match

Cariari Pococi

1.40

Curridabat FC

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Curridabat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Curridabat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw

70%

Cariari Pococi or Curridabat FC

77%

Draw or Curridabat FC

53%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

26%

Curridabat FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

84%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

54%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

27%

Curridabat FC 1+ goals

75%

Curridabat FC 2+ goals

40%

Curridabat FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

61%

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Curridabat FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Curridabat FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Curridabat FC attack 1.38 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more

47%

level

23%

Curridabat FC scores more

30%

Cariari Pococi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff