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Curridabat FC vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
2 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
8/22/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 6Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC42%
×Draw27%
Aserri FC31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.39
Aserri FC
1.15

Curridabat FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
69%
Curridabat FC or Aserri FC
73%
Draw or Aserri FC
58%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
20%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
75%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
40%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
16%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
68%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
32%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
58%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
42%
level
27%
Aserri FC scores more
31%

Curridabat FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Curridabat FC vs Aserri FC

Curridabat FC beat Aserri FC 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José).