Aserri FC 0–1 Curridabat FC: Result & Stats

Aserri FC

FT

0 – 1

Curridabat FC

10/13/2018

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto (Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aserri FC45%

×Draw24%

Curridabat FC31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aserri FCExpected goals in this matchCurridabat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.31

Aserri FC

1.63

Curridabat FC

1.31

Aserri FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 32 away

1.32

creates per match

1.38

1.25

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Aserri FC

1.32

Curridabat FC

1.38

allows per match

Aserri FC

1.25

Curridabat FC

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par

Curridabat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Curridabat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw

69%

Aserri FC or Curridabat FC

76%

Draw or Curridabat FC

55%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+

23%

Curridabat FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals

80%

Aserri FC 2+ goals

48%

Aserri FC 3+ goals

22%

Curridabat FC 1+ goals

73%

Curridabat FC 2+ goals

38%

Curridabat FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)

59%

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Curridabat FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Curridabat FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.63

Curridabat FC attack 1.38 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aserri FC scores more

45%

level

24%

Curridabat FC scores more

31%

Aserri FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff