Curico Unido 3–4 Magallanes: Result & Stats

Curico Unido

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Magallanes

11/26/2023

Primera División · Round 28Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Curico Unido45%

×Draw24%

Magallanes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curico UnidoExpected goals in this matchMagallanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.31

Curico Unido

1.65

Magallanes

1.31

Curico Unido creates 26% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

1.49

creates per match

1.27

1.36

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Curico Unido

1.49

Magallanes

1.27

allows per match

Curico Unido

1.36

Magallanes

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Magallanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw

70%

Curico Unido or Magallanes

76%

Draw or Magallanes

55%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+

24%

Magallanes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals

81%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

49%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

23%

Magallanes 1+ goals

73%

Magallanes 2+ goals

38%

Magallanes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

60%

Magallanes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.49 + Magallanes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Magallanes attack 1.27 + Curico Unido defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Curico Unido scores more

45%

level

24%

Magallanes scores more

30%

Curico Unido at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff