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Curico Unido vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Curico Unido
Curico Unido
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
12/8/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Curico Unido36%
×Draw26%
Colo Colo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curico Unido
1.31
Colo Colo
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 126 away

creates per match

Curico Unido
1.49
Colo Colo
1.35

allows per match

Curico Unido
1.36
Colo Colo
1.14

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw
62%
Curico Unido or Colo Colo
74%
Draw or Colo Colo
64%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+
16%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals
73%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
38%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
14%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
74%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
39%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)
49%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.49 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + Curico Unido defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Curico Unido scores more
36%
level
26%
Colo Colo scores more
38%

Colo Colo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Curico Unido vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Curico Unido 1-0 in Primera División on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Curicó.