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Colo Colo vs Curico Unido — Primera División 2018

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Curico Unido
Curico Unido
10/9/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 27Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Colo Colo53%
×Draw25%
Curico Unido22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.59
Curico Unido
0.93

Colo Colo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 91 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
1.64
Curico Unido
1.02

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.83
Curico Unido
1.55

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Curico Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
78%
Colo Colo or Curico Unido
75%
Draw or Curico Unido
47%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
28%
Curico Unido wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
80%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
47%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
21%
Curico Unido 1+ goals
61%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
24%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
71%
Curico Unido (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.83 · 130 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 1.64 + Curico Unido defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Curico Unido attack 1.02 + Colo Colo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Colo Colo scores more
53%
level
25%
Curico Unido scores more
22%

Colo Colo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Colo Colo 1–1 Curico Unido

Colo Colo and Curico Unido drew 1-1 in Primera División on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.