Curico Unido 0–1 Barnechea: Result & Stats

Curico Unido

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barnechea

7/22/2024

Primera B · Round 17Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Curico Unido39%

×Draw27%

Barnechea34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curico UnidoExpected goals in this matchBarnechea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

Curico Unido

1.31

Barnechea

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 95 away

1.11

creates per match

1.09

1.32

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Curico Unido

1.11

Barnechea

1.09

allows per match

Curico Unido

1.32

Barnechea

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Barnechea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw

66%

Curico Unido or Barnechea

73%

Draw or Barnechea

61%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+

18%

Barnechea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals

73%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

38%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

14%

Barnechea 1+ goals

70%

Barnechea 2+ goals

34%

Barnechea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

53%

Barnechea (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.11 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Curico Unido defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Curico Unido scores more

39%

level

27%

Barnechea scores more

34%

Curico Unido at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff