Barnechea 4–1 Curico Unido: Result & Stats

Barnechea

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Curico Unido

3/4/2024

Primera B · Round 2Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barnechea46%

×Draw26%

Curico Unido28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnecheaExpected goals in this matchCurico Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Barnechea

1.48

Curico Unido

1.08

Barnechea creates 37% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 38 away

1.50

creates per match

0.95

1.21

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Barnechea

1.50

Curico Unido

0.95

allows per match

Barnechea

1.21

Curico Unido

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Curico Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw

72%

Barnechea or Curico Unido

74%

Draw or Curico Unido

54%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+

23%

Curico Unido wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals

77%

Barnechea 2+ goals

43%

Barnechea 3+ goals

19%

Curico Unido 1+ goals

66%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

29%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)

63%

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Curico Unido defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Curico Unido attack 0.95 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barnechea scores more

46%

level

26%

Curico Unido scores more

28%

Barnechea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff