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Cunupia vs Club Sando — League #591 2026

Cunupia
Cunupia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club Sando
Club Sando
3/28/2026League #591League #591 · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Cunupia4%
×Draw13%
Club Sando83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cunupia
0.34
Club Sando
2.42

Club Sando creates 612% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cunupia
0.11
Club Sando
1.83

allows per match

Cunupia
3.00
Club Sando
0.58

finishing

Cunupia+0.00on par
Club Sando+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cunupia ↓

Club Sando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–116%
0–219%
0–315%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (19%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cunupia or draw
17%
Cunupia or Club Sando
87%
Draw or Club Sando
96%

Winning margin

Cunupia wins by 2+
1%
Club Sando wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Cunupia 1+ goals
29%
Cunupia 2+ goals
5%
Cunupia 3+ goals
1%
Club Sando 1+ goals
91%
Club Sando 2+ goals
69%
Club Sando 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Cunupia (draw refunded)
4%
Club Sando (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cunupia at home — creates 0.11, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

Club Sando away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cunupia attack 0.11 + Club Sando defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.34

Club Sando attack 1.83 + Cunupia defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Cunupia scores more
4%
level
13%
Club Sando scores more
83%

Club Sando at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Club Sando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cunupia vs Club Sando

Cunupia and Club Sando drew 0-0 in League #591 on March 28, 2026.