Cuniburo vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Cuniburo49%
Mushuc Runa SC26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cuniburo creates 48% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 117 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cuniburo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cuniburo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches
Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cuniburo attack 1.22 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52
Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Cuniburo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Cuniburo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Macara
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
LibertadMushuc Runa SC
Emelec
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
Orense SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cuniburo host Mushuc Runa SC on Sunday, 13 July 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Cuniburo vs Mushuc Runa SC
Cuniburo and Mushuc Runa SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on July 13, 2025.
Goals: J. Lugo (52' pen), J. Dos Santos (56').
Cuniburo controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 14.
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Quito.