Cumberland United 1–1 Adelaide Comets

Cumberland United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Adelaide Comets

S. Carmichael 50'

S. Carmichael 45+2' (OG)

2/25/2022

South Australia NPL · Round 2A. A. Bailey Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cumberland United27%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Comets51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cumberland UnitedExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Comets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.98

Cumberland United

1.41

Adelaide Comets

1.98

Adelaide Comets creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 88 away

1.27

creates per match

1.59

2.36

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Cumberland United

1.27

Adelaide Comets

1.59

allows per match

Cumberland United

2.36

Adelaide Comets

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumberland United+0.00on par

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumberland United ↓

Adelaide Comets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Cumberland United or draw

49%

Cumberland United or Adelaide Comets

78%

Draw or Adelaide Comets

73%

Winning margin

Cumberland United wins by 2+

12%

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Cumberland United 1+ goals

76%

Cumberland United 2+ goals

41%

Cumberland United 3+ goals

17%

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals

86%

Adelaide Comets 2+ goals

59%

Adelaide Comets 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Cumberland United (draw refunded)

35%

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumberland United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Adelaide Comets away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumberland United attack 1.27 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Adelaide Comets attack 1.59 + Cumberland United defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cumberland United scores more

27%

level

22%

Adelaide Comets scores more

51%

Adelaide Comets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

S. CarmichaelOwn goal

50'

S. Carmichael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff