Adelaide Comets 2–1 Cumberland United

Adelaide Comets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cumberland United

L. Stead 24'

T. Briscoe 23'

S. Carmichael 30' (pen)

6/4/2022

South Australia NPL · Round 13ServiceFM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Adelaide Comets52%

×Draw23%

Cumberland United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide CometsExpected goals in this matchCumberland United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.19

Adelaide Comets

1.83

Cumberland United

1.19

Adelaide Comets creates 54% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 33 away

1.76

creates per match

1.24

1.14

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Adelaide Comets

1.76

Cumberland United

1.24

allows per match

Adelaide Comets

1.14

Cumberland United

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Cumberland United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Comets ↓

Cumberland United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide Comets or draw

75%

Adelaide Comets or Cumberland United

77%

Draw or Cumberland United

48%

Winning margin

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+

29%

Cumberland United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals

84%

Adelaide Comets 2+ goals

54%

Adelaide Comets 3+ goals

28%

Cumberland United 1+ goals

70%

Cumberland United 2+ goals

33%

Cumberland United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)

68%

Cumberland United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Comets at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

Cumberland United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Comets attack 1.76 + Cumberland United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cumberland United attack 1.24 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adelaide Comets scores more

52%

level

23%

Cumberland United scores more

25%

Adelaide Comets at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

T. Briscoe

24'

L. Stead

30'

S. CarmichaelPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff