Cumbayá 1–0 Atlético Vinotinto: Result & Stats

Cumbayá

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Vinotinto

R. Tapia 3'

3/19/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cumbayá44%

×Draw29%

Atlético Vinotinto27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CumbayáExpected goals in this matchAtlético Vinotinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.91

Cumbayá

1.23

Atlético Vinotinto

0.91

Cumbayá creates 35% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

1.26

creates per match

0.81

1.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cumbayá

1.26

Atlético Vinotinto

0.81

allows per match

Cumbayá

1.00

Atlético Vinotinto

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw

73%

Cumbayá or Atlético Vinotinto

71%

Draw or Atlético Vinotinto

56%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+

19%

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals

71%

Cumbayá 2+ goals

35%

Cumbayá 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)

61%

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.26 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cumbayá scores more

44%

level

29%

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

27%

Cumbayá at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

R. Tapia

74'

J. Angulo

Cumbayá

Atlético

12

26

21

4

20

5

3

7

10

9

24

32

14

2

4

6

10

⚽

8

7

5

27

20

Manager: D. Neculman

Cumbayá substitutes

23Delgado11Farfán9Monges60Ortiz3Allauca1Riego19Montaño25Chalá

Manager: L. Soler

Atlético Vinotinto substitutes

11Kouffaty16Vidal18Bonilla33Faccioli8Zambrano97Cangá2Piñeiros40Porozo31Barragán6Sánchez

Match Recap: Cumbayá vs Atlético Vinotinto

Cumbayá beat Atlético Vinotinto 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 19, 2025.

Goals: R. Tapia (3').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz in Quito.

Cumbayá vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cumbayá vs Atlético Vinotinto