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Atlético Vinotinto vs Cumbayá — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cumbayá
Cumbayá
H. Garcia 60'
G. Corozo 55'
P. Vargas 18'
P. Vidal 9'
8/17/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Vinotinto60%
×Draw23%
Cumbayá17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Vinotinto
1.81
Cumbayá
0.85

Atlético Vinotinto creates 113% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atlético Vinotinto
2.31
Cumbayá
0.96

allows per match

Atlético Vinotinto
0.75
Cumbayá
1.31

finishing

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par
Cumbayá+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Vinotinto ↓

Cumbayá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Vinotinto or draw
83%
Atlético Vinotinto or Cumbayá
77%
Draw or Cumbayá
40%

Winning margin

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
35%
Cumbayá wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
27%
Cumbayá 1+ goals
57%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
21%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
78%
Cumbayá (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Vinotinto at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Cumbayá away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Vinotinto attack 2.31 + Cumbayá defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cumbayá attack 0.96 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Vinotinto scores more
60%
level
23%
Cumbayá scores more
17%

Atlético Vinotinto at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
P. Vidal
18'
P. Vargas
55'
G. Corozo
60'
H. Garcia
Atlético
Cumbayá
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler
D. Neculman
Manager: D. Neculman

Liga Pro Serie B: Atlético Vinotinto 4–0 Cumbayá

Atlético Vinotinto beat Cumbayá 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 17, 2025.

Goals: P. Vidal (9'), P. Vargas (18'), G. Corozo (55'), H. Garcia (60').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.