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Cumbayá vs America de Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America de Quito
America de Quito
7/7/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 20Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cumbayá44%
×Draw28%
America de Quito28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.29
America de Quito
0.96

Cumbayá creates 34% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
1.30
America de Quito
1.05

allows per match

Cumbayá
0.86
America de Quito
1.28

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

America de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
72%
Cumbayá or America de Quito
72%
Draw or America de Quito
56%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
20%
America de Quito wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
72%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
37%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
14%
America de Quito 1+ goals
62%
America de Quito 2+ goals
25%
America de Quito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
61%
America de Quito (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 43 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.30 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Cumbayá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cumbayá scores more
44%
level
28%
America de Quito scores more
28%

Cumbayá at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Cumbayá 0–0 America de Quito

Cumbayá and America de Quito drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.