America de Quito 2–2 Cumbayá: Result & Stats

America de Quito

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cumbayá

K. Hoyos 90+4'

J. Lugo 61' (pen)

Unknown 70', 33'

8/19/2021

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 28Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

America de Quito48%

×Draw27%

Cumbayá24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de QuitoExpected goals in this matchCumbayá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.90

America de Quito

1.39

Cumbayá

0.90

America de Quito creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.48

creates per match

0.95

0.84

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

America de Quito

1.48

Cumbayá

0.95

allows per match

America de Quito

0.84

Cumbayá

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par

Cumbayá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Cumbayá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw

76%

America de Quito or Cumbayá

73%

Draw or Cumbayá

52%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+

23%

Cumbayá wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals

75%

America de Quito 2+ goals

40%

America de Quito 3+ goals

16%

Cumbayá 1+ goals

59%

Cumbayá 2+ goals

23%

Cumbayá 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)

66%

Cumbayá (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Cumbayá away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Cumbayá defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cumbayá attack 0.95 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

America de Quito scores more

48%

level

27%

Cumbayá scores more

24%

America de Quito at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

61'

J. LugoPenalty

70'

83'

90+4'

K. Hoyos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff