Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Arenteiro: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arenteiro

Eneko Satrústegui 89'

4/5/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cultural Leonesa50%

×Draw27%

Arenteiro22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchArenteiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.83

Cultural Leonesa

1.40

Arenteiro

0.83

Cultural Leonesa creates 69% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 57 away

1.41

creates per match

0.75

0.91

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Arenteiro

0.75

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Arenteiro

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Arenteiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

78%

Cultural Leonesa or Arenteiro

73%

Draw or Arenteiro

50%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

25%

Arenteiro wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

75%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

41%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

17%

Arenteiro 1+ goals

56%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

20%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

69%

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Arenteiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Arenteiro attack 0.75 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

50%

level

27%

Arenteiro scores more

22%

Cultural Leonesa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

D. Ferreiro

65'

Santi Samanes← Bicho

67'

J. Cuéllar← Marcos Baselga

71'

Antón Escobar← Manu Justo

71'

Carlos Calderón← A. Pastoriza

74'

A. Lopez

76'

E. Rodriguez

78'

Adrián Cruz← David Ferreiro

78'

Jordan Sánchez← Curro Rivelott

83'

Juan Artola← Barri

83'

Txus Alba← Luis Chacón

84'

lano Imbene

89'

Eneko Satrústegui

90'

E. Satrustegui

90+1'

Luis Fernández← Andrés Borge

Cultural

Arenteiro

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl Llona

65'▲Santi Samanes←▼Bicho

71'▲Antón Escobar←▼Manu Justo

71'▲Carlos Calderón←▼A. Pastoriza

83'▲Juan Artola←▼Barri

83'▲Txus Alba←▼Luis Chacón

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

SamanesEscobarCalderónArtolaAlbaRuizOrtegaLanchiRuizAmigoRuizSuárez

Manager: Raúl Jardiel

67'▲J. Cuéllar←▼Marcos Baselga

78'▲Adrián Cruz←▼David Ferreiro

78'▲Jordan Sánchez←▼Curro Rivelott

90+1'▲Luis Fernández←▼Andrés Borge

Arenteiro substitutes

CuéllarCruzSánchezFernándezFigueroaEstebanLuca

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Arenteiro

Cultural Leonesa beat Arenteiro 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: Eneko Satrústegui (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.

Cultural Leonesa vs Arenteiro — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Arenteiro