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Arenteiro vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenteiro
Arenteiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
2/10/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio de Espiñedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Arenteiro41%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenteiro
1.26
Cultural Leonesa
1.07

Arenteiro creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Arenteiro
1.21
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Arenteiro
0.98
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Arenteiro+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenteiro ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arenteiro or draw
69%
Arenteiro or Cultural Leonesa
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
59%

Winning margin

Arenteiro wins by 2+
18%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arenteiro 1+ goals
72%
Arenteiro 2+ goals
36%
Arenteiro 3+ goals
13%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
66%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
29%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arenteiro (draw refunded)
56%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenteiro at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenteiro attack 1.21 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Arenteiro defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arenteiro scores more
41%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
31%

Arenteiro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arenteiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Arenteiro 1–0 Cultural Leonesa

Arenteiro beat Cultural Leonesa 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Espiñedo in O Carballiño.