Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Amorebieta

Iván González 8'

Ekain Zenitagoia 6'

8/24/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa51%

×Draw27%

Amorebieta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.84

Cultural Leonesa

1.45

Amorebieta

0.84

Cultural Leonesa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.92

creates per match

1.07

0.62

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.92

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.62

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

78%

Cultural Leonesa or Amorebieta

73%

Draw or Amorebieta

49%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

26%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

77%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

42%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

18%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

57%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

21%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

70%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.45

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

51%

level

27%

Amorebieta scores more

22%

Cultural Leonesa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Ekain Zenitagoia

8'

Iván González

65'

Sergio Benito← Menudo

66'

Iker Bilbao← Aitor Ortega

72'

Sergio Marcos← Julián Luque

73'

Amorrortu← Íñigo Orozco

85'

Antonio López← Dioni

86'

Ekaitz Molina← Ekain Zenitagoia

Cultural

Amorebieta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Manuel Aira

65'▲Sergio Benito←▼Menudo

72'▲Sergio Marcos←▼Julián Luque

85'▲Antonio López←▼Dioni

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

BenitoMarcosLópezGalvanMontesEstellésGiffard

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

66'▲Iker Bilbao←▼Aitor Ortega

73'▲Amorrortu←▼Íñigo Orozco

86'▲Ekaitz Molina←▼Ekain Zenitagoia

Amorebieta substitutes

BilbaoAmorrortuMolinaPérezGarroRementeriaSalazar

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Amorebieta

Cultural Leonesa and Amorebieta drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 24, 2019.

Goals: Ekain Zenitagoia (6'), Iván González (8').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.

Cultural Leonesa vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Amorebieta