Amorebieta 1–3 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

Amorrortu 62'

G. Gudiño 89'

Èric Montes 66'

Dioni 56'

1/15/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Amorebieta44%

×Draw26%

Cultural Leonesa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Amorebieta

1.44

Cultural Leonesa

1.13

Amorebieta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

1.33

0.93

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.54

Cultural Leonesa

1.33

allows per match

Amorebieta

0.93

Cultural Leonesa

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

70%

Amorebieta or Cultural Leonesa

74%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

56%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

21%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

76%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

42%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

18%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

68%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

31%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

60%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amorebieta scores more

44%

level

26%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

30%

Amorebieta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Dioni

62'

Amorrortu

66'

Èric Montes

68'

Aitor Ortega← Mikel Álvaro

68'

G. Gudiño← Dani Pichín

75'

Sergio Benito← Julián Luque

79'

Gabri Salazar← Iker Bilbao

89'

G. Gudiño

90+1'

V. Theresin← A. Kawaya

Amorebieta

Cultural

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

68'▲Aitor Ortega←▼Mikel Álvaro

79'▲Gabri Salazar←▼Iker Bilbao

Amorebieta substitutes

OrtegaSalazarMolinaZarrabeitiaRementeria

Manager: José Manuel Aira

68'▲G. Gudiño←▼Dani Pichín

75'▲Sergio Benito←▼Julián Luque

90+1'▲V. Theresin←▼A. Kawaya

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

GudiñoBenitoTheresinMartínezGalvanGiffardMarcos

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Amorebieta 1–3 Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa beat Amorebieta 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 15, 2020.

Goals: Dioni (56'), Amorrortu (62'), Èric Montes (66'), G. Gudiño (89').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.

Amorebieta vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Amorebieta 1–3 Cultural Leonesa