Cultural Leonesa II 1–2 Bembibre: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa II

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bembibre

9/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II47%

×Draw26%

Bembibre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural Leonesa IIExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Cultural Leonesa II

1.46

Bembibre

1.02

Cultural Leonesa II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

1.42

creates per match

0.82

1.23

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II

1.42

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II

1.23

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Bembibre →

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw

74%

Cultural Leonesa II or Bembibre

74%

Draw or Bembibre

53%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+

23%

Bembibre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals

77%

Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals

43%

Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals

18%

Bembibre 1+ goals

64%

Bembibre 2+ goals

27%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)

64%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more

47%

level

26%

Bembibre scores more

26%

Cultural Leonesa II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa II vs Bembibre

Bembibre beat Cultural Leonesa II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.

Cultural Leonesa II vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa II vs Bembibre