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Bembibre vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bembibre33%
×Draw29%
Cultural Leonesa II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.06
Cultural Leonesa II
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
62%
Bembibre or Cultural Leonesa II
71%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
67%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
13%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
65%
Bembibre 2+ goals
29%
Bembibre 3+ goals
9%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
69%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
32%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
46%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bembibre scores more
33%
level
29%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
38%

Cultural Leonesa II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Cultural Leonesa II

Cultural Leonesa II beat Bembibre 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.