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Cultural Leonesa II vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II38%
×Draw27%
Atlético Tordesillas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.25
Atlético Tordesillas
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
65%
Cultural Leonesa II or Atlético Tordesillas
73%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
62%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
71%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
36%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
52%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
38%
level
27%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
35%

Cultural Leonesa II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cultural Leonesa II 0 – 1 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Cultural Leonesa II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.