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Atlético Tordesillas vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas44%
×Draw29%
Cultural Leonesa II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.25
Cultural Leonesa II
0.93

Atlético Tordesillas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
72%
Atlético Tordesillas or Cultural Leonesa II
71%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
20%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
13%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
61%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
24%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
61%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
44%
level
29%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
28%

Atlético Tordesillas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tordesillas 2 – 1 Cultural Leonesa II

Atlético Tordesillas beat Cultural Leonesa II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.