Cuiaba 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cuiaba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Criciuma

Joao Basso 21'

Caue Santos 90'

5/2/2026

Serie B · Round 7Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Cuiaba44%

×Draw28%

Criciuma28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.99

Cuiaba

1.31

Criciuma

0.99

Cuiaba creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

0.87

1.10

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.54

Criciuma

0.87

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.10

Criciuma

1.08

-0.75scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Cuiaba-0.75scores less

Criciuma-0.04on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

72%

Cuiaba or Criciuma

72%

Draw or Criciuma

56%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

20%

Criciuma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

73%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

38%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

14%

Criciuma 1+ goals

63%

Criciuma 2+ goals

26%

Criciuma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

61%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.54 + Criciuma defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Criciuma attack 0.87 + Cuiaba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cuiaba scores more

44%

level

28%

Criciuma scores more

28%

Cuiaba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Joao Basso

Cuiaba · D

8.0

Match Events

21'

Joao Basso↳ Pepe

46'

Waguininho← Nicolas

46'

Willean Lepo← Luciano Castan

46'

Jhonata Robert← Thiaguinho

62'

Kauan Cristtyan← Eliel

64'

R. Otero← Romarinho

69'

Luis Soares← Eric Melo

77'

Caue Santos← Marcinho

81'

Weverson← Pepe

81'

Nino Paraiba← Raylan

81'

Vinicius Peixoto← Rodrigo Rodrigues

85'

David

90'

Caue Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaCriciuma

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots10

0.82Expected Goals (xG)0.69

3Corners2

17Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target5

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

396Total Passes443

322Accurate Passes370

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.69Goals Prevented0.69

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3