Criciuma 2–5 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie A

Criciuma

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Cuiaba

Tobias Figueiredo 65'

Matheusinho 63'

Ramon 90+5'

Max 46'

Clayson 35', 23'

I. Pitta 16'

6/9/2024

Serie A · Round 6Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Criciuma41%

×Draw31%

Cuiaba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.85

Criciuma

1.10

Cuiaba

0.85

Criciuma creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

1.06

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Criciuma

1.00

Cuiaba

0.64

allows per match

Criciuma

1.06

Cuiaba

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Cuiaba+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

72%

Criciuma or Cuiaba

69%

Draw or Cuiaba

59%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

17%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

67%

Criciuma 2+ goals

30%

Criciuma 3+ goals

10%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

57%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

21%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

60%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.20 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.00 + Cuiaba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cuiaba attack 0.64 + Criciuma defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Criciuma scores more

41%

level

31%

Cuiaba scores more

28%

Criciuma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Jonathan Cafú

Cuiaba · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Marquinhos Gabriel

16'

I. Pitta↳ Jonathan Cafú

23'

Clayson↳ Jonathan Cafú

31'

Matheus Alexandre

35'

Clayson↳ Denilson

44'

Ronald← Higor Meritão

44'

Jonathan← Marquinhos Gabriel

44'

Arthur Caíke← Claudinho

46'

Max↳ I. Pitta

63'

Matheusinho↳ Jonathan

65'

Tobias Figueiredo↳ Marcelo Hermes

66'

M. Trauco← Marcelo Hermes

69'

Eliel← Clayson

69'

Fernando Sobral← Max

70'

Éder

70'

Guilherme Madruga← Denilson

76'

77'

79'

86'

86'

86'

Newton← Barreto

88'

89'

90+8'

90+7'

90+1'

90+7'

L. Giménez← Jonathan Cafú

90+5'

Ramon↳ Guilherme Madruga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaCuiaba

Overview

62%Possession38%

23Total Shots13

1.78Expected Goals (xG)1.47

6Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots13

9On Target7

9Off Target4

5Blocked2

12Inside Box8

11Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

506Total Passes317

434Accurate Passes244

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.39Goals Prevented0.39

Discipline

10Fouls13

5Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

5Offsides0

Match Recap: Criciuma vs Cuiaba

Cuiaba beat Criciuma 5-2 in Serie A on June 9, 2024.

Goals: I. Pitta (16'), Clayson (23', 35'), Max (46'), Matheusinho (63'), Tobias Figueiredo (65'), Ramon (90+5').

Criciuma controlled possession (62%) and registered 23 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.

Criciuma vs Cuiaba — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Criciuma vs Cuiaba