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Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
Preview
01:05
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
10/21/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio General Santander
Big match
40%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
33%27%40%

Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cucuta33%
×Draw27%
Atletico Nacional40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.20
Atletico Nacional
1.35

Atletico Nacional creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 195 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.31
Atletico Nacional
1.22

allows per match

Cucuta
1.48
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
60%
Cucuta or Atletico Nacional
73%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
67%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
14%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
70%
Cucuta 2+ goals
34%
Cucuta 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
39%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
45%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 195 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.31 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Cucuta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cucuta scores more
33%
level
27%
Atletico Nacional scores more
40%

Atletico Nacional at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Nacional have won 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cucuta
Balanced
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
47%Possession56%
77%Pass accuracy83%
9.1ShotsBiggest gap15.2
0.95xG1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CucutaAtletico Nacional

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Cucuta
1
Draws
6
Atletico Nacional
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 38%
0–00–30–10–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cucuta
LDDDL
Nacional
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cucuta host Atletico Nacional

October 21, 2026: Cucuta take on Atletico Nacional in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cucuta host Atletico Nacional at Estadio General Santander.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.