Cucuta 0–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

B. Perlaza 33'

11/27/2019

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cucuta33%

×Draw27%

Atletico Nacional40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.35

Cucuta

1.20

Atletico Nacional

1.35

Atletico Nacional creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 193 away

1.31

creates per match

1.23

1.48

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Cucuta

1.31

Atletico Nacional

1.23

allows per match

Cucuta

1.48

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

60%

Cucuta or Atletico Nacional

73%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

67%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

70%

Cucuta 2+ goals

34%

Cucuta 3+ goals

12%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

39%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

45%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 193 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.31 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atletico Nacional attack 1.23 + Cucuta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cucuta scores more

33%

level

27%

Atletico Nacional scores more

40%

Atletico Nacional at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Quintana

Atletico Nacional · G

9.0

Match Events

11'

Harrinson Mancilla

17'

Andrés Reyes

32'

Luis Miranda

33'

B. Perlaza↳ Y. Candelo

42'

Christian Mafla

46'

S. Gómez← A. Reyes

49'

Juan Camilo Chaverra

59'

J. Agudelo← H. Mancilla

59'

C. Blanco← C. Mafla

61'

José Orlando Pérez

68'

Y. Velásquez← Y. Candelo

70'

James Castro

82'

L. Ortíz← J. Pérez

86'

Y. Carabalí← D. Chica

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaAtletico

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots17

3Corners5

30Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots17

7On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

12Inside Box10

1Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

302Total Passes485

228Accurate Passes409

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

30Fouls17

5Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0