Cucuta 0–3 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Atletico Nacional

8/5/2025

Copa Colombia · Play-offsEstadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cucuta33%

×Draw29%

Atletico Nacional39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.19

Cucuta

1.07

Atletico Nacional

1.19

Atletico Nacional creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

0.93

creates per match

1.30

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cucuta

0.93

Atletico Nacional

1.30

allows per match

Cucuta

1.07

Atletico Nacional

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

61%

Cucuta or Atletico Nacional

71%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

67%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

66%

Cucuta 2+ goals

29%

Cucuta 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 0.93 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atletico Nacional attack 1.30 + Cucuta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cucuta scores more

33%

level

29%

Atletico Nacional scores more

39%

Atletico Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff