Cucuta 1–3 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

J. Agudelo 42'

B. Rovira 79'

H. Barcos 60'

Hanyen Palacios 56'

3/23/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 11Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cucuta32%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.22

Cucuta

1.08

Atletico Nacional

1.22

Atletico Nacional creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Cucuta

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Cucuta

1.29

Atletico Nacional

1.10

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Cucuta+0.27scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

61%

Cucuta or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

68%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

66%

Cucuta 2+ goals

29%

Cucuta 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

45%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.06 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Cucuta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cucuta scores more

32%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

39%

Atletico Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Agudelo

Cucuta · F

7.7

Match Events

18'

Brayan Rovira

41'

Harrinson Mancilla

42'

J. Agudelo↳ J. Castro

43'

Jhonatan Agudelo

46'

Hanyen Palacios← Y. Candelo

48'

Luis Miranda

51'

John Hernandez

56'

Hanyen Palacios↳ P. Ceppelini

58'

Nicolás Hernández

60'

H. Barcos↳ V. Hernández

63'

A. Perea← D. Bocanegra

74'

W. Guisao← J. Núñez

78'

Javier Lopez

79'

B. Rovira

80'

Matias Perez

82'

L. Cabrera← J. Hernández

88'

C. Blanco← P. Ceppelini

90'

Cristian Blanco

90'

Sebastian Gomez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaAtletico

Overview

58%Possession42%

28Total Shots14

4Corners3

18Fouls16

Shots

28Total Shots14

6On Target8

18Off Target3

4Blocked3

15Inside Box7

13Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

397Total Passes288

325Accurate Passes218

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls16

6Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat Cucuta 3-1 in Primera A on March 23, 2019.

Goals: J. Agudelo (42'), Hanyen Palacios (56'), H. Barcos (60'), B. Rovira (79').

Cucuta controlled possession (58%) and registered 28 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.

Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional