Cucuta 0–2 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

C. Palomeque 82'

J. Mancilla 39'

2/8/2020

Primera A · Round 4Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cucuta42%

×Draw26%

Alianza Valledupar32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Cucuta

1.41

Alianza Valledupar

1.19

Cucuta creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

1.33

creates per match

0.70

1.67

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Cucuta

1.33

Alianza Valledupar

0.70

allows per match

Cucuta

1.67

Alianza Valledupar

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

68%

Cucuta or Alianza Valledupar

74%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

58%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

20%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

76%

Cucuta 2+ goals

41%

Cucuta 3+ goals

17%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

70%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

33%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

57%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.33 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.70 + Cucuta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cucuta scores more

42%

level

26%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

32%

Cucuta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Jérez

Alianza Valledupar · G

8.4

Match Events

29'

Carlos Anderson Pérez

37'

Víctor Moreno

39'

J. Mancilla

51'

Freddy Flórez

60'

J. Marín← M. Rodríguez

65'

65'

66'

75'

77'

82'

C. Alzáte← J. Hernández

82'

C. Palomeque↳ J. Portilla

86'

J. Castillo← J. Portilla

87'

Gilberto Garcia

88'

Maximiliano Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaAlianza

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots12

5Corners4

19Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target5

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

334Total Passes317

250Accurate Passes232

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2