Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Cucuta: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cucuta

M. Duarte 34'

4/14/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 15Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alianza Valledupar56%

×Draw24%

Cucuta20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchCucuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.89

Alianza Valledupar

1.67

Cucuta

0.89

Alianza Valledupar creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

1.28

creates per match

0.93

0.85

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.28

Cucuta

0.93

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.85

Cucuta

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Cucuta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Cucuta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

80%

Alianza Valledupar or Cucuta

76%

Draw or Cucuta

44%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

30%

Cucuta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

81%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

50%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

23%

Cucuta 1+ goals

59%

Cucuta 2+ goals

22%

Cucuta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

74%

Cucuta (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.28 + Cucuta defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cucuta attack 0.93 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

56%

level

24%

Cucuta scores more

20%

Alianza Valledupar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Duarte

Cucuta · D

8.3

Match Events

18'

Cesar Arias

34'

M. Duarte

38'

Jhonatan Agudelo

46'

W. Guisao← C. Mosquera

47'

Harrinson Mancilla

58'

Braynner Garcia

59'

A. Serna← J. Mancilla

61'

66'

74'

77'

79'

89'

89'

D. Carrero← J. Agudelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaCucuta

Overview

54%Possession46%

25Total Shots6

10Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

25Total Shots6

3On Target4

14Off Target2

8Blocked0

11Inside Box2

14Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

402Total Passes356

335Accurate Passes282

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1