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Cucuta vs Alianza Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2019

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
M. López 70'
W. Guisao 52'
C. Arias 65'
3/15/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 2Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cucuta44%
×Draw28%
Alianza Valledupar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.30
Alianza Valledupar
0.96

Cucuta creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cucuta
0.93
Alianza Valledupar
0.84

allows per match

Cucuta
1.07
Alianza Valledupar
1.68

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
72%
Cucuta or Alianza Valledupar
72%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
56%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
20%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
73%
Cucuta 2+ goals
37%
Cucuta 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
62%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
25%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
62%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 0.93 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.84 + Cucuta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cucuta scores more
44%
level
28%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
28%

Cucuta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
W. Guisao
65'
C. Arias
70'
M. López

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Cucuta 2–1 Alianza Valledupar

Cucuta beat Alianza Valledupar 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 15, 2019.

Goals: W. Guisao (52'), C. Arias (65'), M. López (70').

The match was played at Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta).