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Cuarte vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Cuarte
Cuarte
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
5/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Municipal Juan Guerrero El Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cuarte23%
×Draw21%
Atlético Monzón56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuarte
1.33
Atlético Monzón
2.17

Atlético Monzón creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cuarte
1.33
Atlético Monzón
3.00

allows per match

Cuarte
1.33
Atlético Monzón
1.33

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw
44%
Cuarte or Atlético Monzón
79%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
77%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals
74%
Cuarte 2+ goals
38%
Cuarte 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
89%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
64%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)
29%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.33 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético Monzón attack 3.00 + Cuarte defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cuarte scores more
23%
level
21%
Atlético Monzón scores more
56%

Atlético Monzón at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Cuarte 2–3 Atlético Monzón

Atlético Monzón beat Cuarte 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Juan Guerrero El Lobo in Cuarte de Huerva.